3. Technical Picture

Prepared by Wick, Technical Analyst. Data: Yahoo Finance daily and intraday bars through the October 7, 2026 close ($237.47). Chart data is in 3-technical-data/.

Summary

Technical rating: Uptrend intact, breakout unconfirmed. Preferred entry $185–190, stop on a daily close below $180, and reassess on a close above $243.37 with volume above ~145M shares.

NVDA's primary trend is up, but the October breakout to a new all-time high ($243.37 on October 6) has not been confirmed by volume. From a technical standpoint we agree with the fundamental WAIT call. The stock sits well above its major support zones, and the best risk-reward entry is a pullback into the heavily traded $185–190 shelf, with a $180 daily-close stop. A volume-backed breakout above the high would call for a reassessment.

Trend structure

Since the June 29 low, NVDA has made a clear series of higher lows: $189.80 (Jun 29), $190.01 (Jul 29, a double bottom), $207.25 (Aug 24) and $208.93 (Sep 14). On October 5 it closed above the May 14 high of $236.54 for the first time, and the next morning it printed a new all-time high. All three key moving averages are rising, and price is above every one of them.

Figure 3.1 — NVDA daily price with 20/50/200-day SMAs, anchored VWAPs and volume (Feb–Oct 2026). Data: 3-technical-data/daily_ohlcv_ma_avwap.csv. Source: Yahoo Finance daily and intraday bars through the Oct 7, 2026 close; Wick analysis.

Volume: the main caution

• The breakout came on below-average volume. October 5 traded 1.04x and October 6 0.83x the 50-day average. October 7 was 0.67x, the lightest session since late September.
• The all-time-high session was a gap-and-fade. The high came in the first five minutes, and the stock closed near the session low, below that day's VWAP of $241.23.
• On-balance volume is still below its May peak even though price made a new high. That is a longer-term non-confirmation.
• In its favor: volume dried up during the September pullback, the September 14 low showed no capitulation, and the 10-day up/down volume ratio is 3.1. This looks like accumulation, not distribution.

Volume profile and anchored VWAPs

A volume profile shows how much stock traded at each price, which tells you where buyers and sellers have committed the most capital. The point of control (POC) is the single most-traded price, and the value area is the range holding 70% of volume.

• 6-month profile: POC $219.25, value area $199.00–$227.50. Price is trading above value, in price discovery.
• 12-month profile: the $180–190 zone is the heaviest volume shelf of the past year. NVDA traded there for about 88 sessions between October 2025 and April 2026. That is the basis for the entry zone below.

Figure 3.2 — 12-month volume-by-price profile, $180–190 shelf highlighted. Data: 3-technical-data/volume_profile_12m.csv. Source: Yahoo Finance daily and intraday bars through the Oct 7, 2026 close; Wick analysis.

Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) is the volume-weighted average price paid by everyone who has bought since a specific swing point, which makes it a practical gauge of whether that group of buyers is in profit.

Every buyer group anchored at a major swing point is in profit. The only AVWAP overhead is the one from the all-time high itself.

Support and resistance map

Resistance

• $238.80–239.50: weekly VWAP and the AVWAP from the all-time high
• $241.20: October 6 session VWAP
• $243.37: all-time high. Above it there is no historical volume overhead.

Support

• $236.00–236.75: May-high pivot, 1-month value area high, October VWAP
• $232.30–233.60: unfilled gap and low-volume pocket
• $230.50: 1-month POC
• $225.60–227.50: primary support cluster (20-day SMA, 20-day VWAP, Sep 14 AVWAP, 6-month value area high)
• $219–221: 6-month POC, 50-day SMA, Jul 29 AVWAP
• $208.93: September higher low. Losing it breaks the uptrend structure.
• $199–202: 6-month value area low and 200-day SMA
• $180–190: 12-month volume shelf and Jun/Jul double bottom (entry zone)

Figure 3.3 — Support and resistance ladder. Data: 3-technical-data/levels.json. Source: Yahoo Finance daily and intraday bars through the Oct 7, 2026 close; Wick analysis.

Earnings behavior

NVDA has beaten consensus on both EPS and revenue for eight straight quarters, yet the stock has consistently sold the news:

• The average reaction-day gap is +2.6%, but the average move from open to close is −3.4%.
• Seven of eight reaction days closed below their open, and only three closed higher on the day.
• The five-day follow-through after the reaction day was negative six of eight times, averaging −3.4%.
• August 2026 broke the pattern (+8.7% on the day) but gave back 4.6% the next session.

Figure 3.4 — Earnings reactions, gap vs. open-to-close, last 8 quarters. Data: 3-technical-data/earnings_reactions.csv. Source: Yahoo Finance prices and EPS estimates; LSEG revenue consensus via CNBC/Reuters; Wick analysis.

The next report is expected Tuesday, November 17, 2026, after the close (stated by NVIDIA IR on the August 26 call; not yet formally announced). History argues against chasing strength into the print.

Technical plan

Data notes are in Appendix B. Technical levels describe probabilities, not certainties.