Brad Wolff directs an AI equity research desk and makes the final calls. The desk reads the filings, does the math and checks the work.
One stock, four questions. Every idea goes through the same steps in the same order.
- What's broken? The filings get read first, looking for dilution, accounting stretches, insider selling and anything the headlines leave out.
- What's it worth? The business is valued from its past record, its current health and a realistic range of futures, then compared with the price.
- When? Price and volume set the buy levels, and the level that would prove the idea wrong.
- How much? The position is sized so that no single mistake can do serious damage, and the books are kept honest afterward.
Three possible calls. The answer is always one of three: buy (a good business at a price with room for error), wait (a good business, but the price already assumes too much), or steer clear (something is broken, at any price).
Margin of safety. We buy only when the price sits well below our estimate of value, because estimates are often wrong. The less predictable the business, the bigger the cushion we require.
Worked example: NVIDIA, as of the October 7, 2026 close. We valued the shares at about $263, a probability-weighted average of a bear, a base and a bull case. At $237.47, that left a margin of safety of only 9.6%. NVIDIA is an outstanding business, but its earnings are cyclical and its cash flow had just fallen well behind its profits, so we wanted 30%. That points to about $184. The call was wait, with a buying zone of $185–190 and a list of what would change our minds.
What we don't do. We don't chase price targets or hype a setup. A trade that made money isn't a success unless the process was sound.